基于技术扩散的客流预测  

The Quantitive Prediction Of The Tourist Based On Technology Diffusion

作　　者：黄娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]沙洋师范高等专科学校数理系,湖北沙洋448200

出　　处：《沙洋师范高等专科学校学报》2007年第5期66-68,共3页Journal of Shayang Teachers College

摘　　要：旅游客流预测是旅游开发的基础研究内容,同时旅游客流具有动态的变化性和影响因素的多样性等特征,使得定量的描述和预测旅游客流具有较大的难度。有鉴于此,本文综合技术扩散理论和区位论等理论,根据技术扩散的思想,在区域选择分析的基础上建立了具有较强实用性的客流动态预测模型。The quantitive prediction of the tourist is the main content of the tourism development. To predict the tourist flow quantitively is very difficult because the flowg dynamic and variability of the influential factors. For these reasons, we create a reliable dynamic model based on technology diffusion and district analysis. This model can be well applied in the tourist prediction.

关 键 词：客流预测 因子——成分分析 技术扩散 

分 类 号：G623[文化科学—教育学]