洮儿河镇西站径流长期预报研究  

Study on Long-Term Runoff Forecast at the Zhenxi Station on the Taoer River

作　　者：许士国[1] 王富强[1] 李红霞[1] 范垂仁[2] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学土木水利学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]长春自然灾害预测研究服务中心,吉林长春130022

出　　处：《水文》2007年第5期86-89,共4页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50139020)

摘　　要：利用1958～2004年洮儿河镇西站47a的径流量资料和同一时期的北太平洋海温及环流特征量资料,分析了北太平洋海温和大气环流变化与镇西站年径流的关系,建立了基于物理成因概念的多元线性回归预报模型,并利用该模型对镇西站2005年的最大洪峰流量和峰现时间做了预报。结果表明,最大洪峰流量和峰现时间模型对历史样本的拟合合格率可以达到76.2%和92.9%。2005年的最大洪峰流量和峰现时间的预报误差均在允许范围以内,为当年该地区的洪水资源利用和防洪减灾工作起到了重要作用。The paper analyzed the influence of sea surface temperature （SST） and the change of circulation characteristics volumes of the annual runoff at the Zhenxi Station on the Taoer River, and set up a successive multivariate linear regression model on concept of physical cause of formation for long-term runoff forecast based on the north Pacific sea surface temperature monthly mean data, the circulation characteristics volumes and the runoff at the Zhenxi Station during the period from 1958 to 2004. The annual maximum peak discharge and time occurred at the Zhenxi Station were forecasted with this model in 2005. The results show that the fitting accuracy of annual maximum peak discharge and time model on historical samples reach 76.2% and 92.9%. The forecasted annual maximum peak discharge and time occurred has permissible error, so that the model is worth popularization and application in flood utilization, flood control and disaster reduce.

关 键 词：海温 环流特征量 多元线性回归 径流预报 

分 类 号：P338.2[天文地球—水文科学]