企业生产能力的柔性投资及其价值评价  

Flexible lnvestment in the Production Capacity of an Enterprise and the Evaluation

作　　者：谌述勇[1] 陈荣秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中理工大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《华中理工大学学报》1997年第4期105-108,共4页Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology

基　　金：863/CIMS主题资助

摘　　要：利用净现值法建立了评价企业生产能力投资价值的模型，运用这种模型对一次性生产能力投资和生产能力柔性投资进行了比较，对模型的敏感性进行了分析，证明柔性的价值随着不确定性的增加而增加，当不确定性不存在时，柔性就没有价值。实例分析说明了模型的效用并证实了有关结论。A model is developed with the net present value (NPV ) method for evaluating the invest- ment value of the production capacity of an enterprise. A comparison is made between the nonrecur- ring capacity investment and flexible capacity investment with the model. Suppose the product demand is a random variable and the standard deviation of demand is used as a measure of the uncertainty. During the whole life period of a product , there exist three stages of the product demand , i. e. , the grow-up , the maturing and declining stages. The model can be used to determine an optimal invest- ment alternative that would make the expected net present value (EMPV ) a maximum for different demand scenarios. The economic vaiue of the flexibie investment can be estimated. lt is concluded from an analysis of the sensitivity of the model that the value of flexibility increases with the uncer- tainty and ,when there exists no uncertainty , the flexibility will be of no value. An example is given to explain the application of the model and the conclusions are verified.

关 键 词：生产能力 投资 企业 价值评价 柔性投资 

分 类 号：F270.3[经济管理—企业管理]