武汉市东湖水质污染状况计量模型研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）特征  

ON THE CALCULATING MODEL OF WATER QUALITY OF DONGHU LAKE IN WUHAN CITY——BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE （EKC）

作　　者：彭鸿[1] 胡辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学环境科学与工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2006年第A01期97-101,共5页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：武汉市“九五”科技攻关项目（编号2006006064）

摘　　要：根据武汉市1991～2004年经济状况（以人均GDP表示）与东湖主要污染物指标的监测数据，分析了武汉市人均GDP与东湖主要污染物指标之间的相关关系，建立了计量模型。研究发现：武汉市东湖主要污染物指标（高锰酸盐指数、BOD、溶解氧、总磷、氨氮）除溶解氧、BOD指标存在近一步恶化的危险外，其余的指标都在一定程度上呈现出好转趋势，说明武汉市东湖水质污染状况开始向良性化方向发展。东湖水质的EKC不完全符合典型的环境库兹涅茨倒“U”型特征，而是呈现出倒“U”、正“U”和“N”型3种曲线特征。分析表明，引起上述变化和出现非典型EKC特征的原因与武汉市的经济发展、环境政策取向、环境保护投资力度等因素有明显关系。Based on economic statistical data （per capita GDP） and water quality monitoring data of Donghu Lake covering 1991 to 2004,a model of the interrelation between water quality of Donghu Lake and economic growth of Wuhan City was established and the characteristic of Kuznets was analyzed. The results lead to three main conclusions： 1） the main indicators relating to water quality of Donghu Lake（CODMn, DO,BOD,TP,NH3-N） all turn better except DO and BOD, which means that water quality of Donghu Lake is becoming better; 2） the curve of Donghu Lake water quality differs from the typical inverted-U shape of EKC and it has three forms： inverted-U,U,N curve; 3） based on the research,economic increase, environmental policy and environmental protect investment are considered as the main factors which lead to the water quality improvement of Donghu Lake.

关 键 词：东湖水质 人均GDP 计量模型 EKC 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]