UGM模型在煤矿安全预测中的应用  

Application of UGM model in coal mine safety prediction

作　　者：李江[1] 林柏泉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学能源与安全工程学院,江苏省徐州市221008

出　　处：《中国煤炭》2007年第10期64-66,69,共4页China Coal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50534090;50574093);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2005cb221506);国家十五重点科技攻关项目(2005BA813B07)

摘　　要：在煤矿安全预测中,经常需要把较短时间间隔内的数据作为参数进行短期预测,这时的预测参数往往是摆动的。而基于灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型只能用平滑单调数据列进行建模,用其进行预测精度较差。运用UGM模型进行建模,能够很好地解决摆动型数据列的预测问题。对实例分别用GM(1,1)模型和UGM模型建模,并对预测结果进行分析比较,结果表明UGM模型具有很好的预测精度,使用简单。因而其方法与结果对于预防煤矿安全事故的发生,保证煤矿的安全生产具有重要意义。In the prediction of coal mine safety,it is always necessary to use the data obtained at short intervals in the form of parameters for short term work safety prediction.At these points,the prediction parameters always swing.The GM(1,1) model based on gray system theory,however,could only use the smooth and monotone data for model building.Its use for prediction,however,only produces an insufficient accuracy.Whereas if UGM model is used for model building,it is easier to solve the problem of prediction if otherwise swing data is used.In actual practice,GM(1,1) model and UGM model are used separately for model formulation and then prediction results are analyzed and compared.The results show that the UGM model offers very good accuracy for prediction and it is easier for use.In reality,the prediction method and prediction results of UGM model are of great significance in the prevention of coal mine disasters and guaranteeing work safety in coal mines.

关 键 词：煤矿安全预测 灰色理论 GM(1 1)模型 UGM模型 

分 类 号：TD7[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]