GM(1,1)模型群在黄河水质预测中的应用研究  

Application of GM(1,1) Model Group in the Water Quality Forecast of The Yellow River

作　　者：程万里[1] 李亦芳[1] 郝伏勤[2] 樊亚玲[1] 张建军[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院,郑州450011 [2]黄河流域水资源保护局,郑州450004

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2007年第11期33-35,共3页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

摘　　要：灰色预测对统计数据较少问题可以进行预测,一般3-4个数据就可以建模,由于建模序列长短不同,会得到不同的预测方程,即对实际问题发展趋势某种程度的把握。实际预测时若能将不同的预测结果综合考虑进去,效果更佳。介绍了GM(1,1)模型建立的方法与步骤,并依据黄河潼关断面过去10年(1996-2005年)水质状况,利用GM(1,1)模型群预测了未来7年(2006-2012年)的水质发展状况。Gray forecast is suitable to fewer problems in statistical data,normally 3 to 4 data can be modeled and the different sequence length in modeling can get different forecast equation,so if the different forecast results can be considered overall in the practice,the effects will be better.The ways and steps of setting up GM（1,1） model are introduced and this model group is used to forecast the future 7 years（2006-2012）of water quality status of Tongguan Cross Section of the Yellow River based on the data of its past 10years（1996-2005）

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型群 水质预测 潼关断面 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]