男男同性恋人群间接规模估计方法的比较研究  

Comparative Study on Estimation Method of Indirect Size of Men Homosexuality Group

作　　者：徐娟[1] 李翠[1] 张佳慧[1] 孔鹏[1] 潘伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学同济医学院医药卫生管理学院,湖北武汉430030

出　　处：《医学与社会》2007年第11期14-15,共2页Medicine and Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目;项目编号:30471479

摘　　要：目的探讨如何运用男男同性恋人群规模估计的方法,合理估计男男同性恋人群规模,为我国艾滋病防治规划的制定和实施提供技术支持。方法合理选择某市男男同性恋活动场所,收集相关数据,首次同时应用捕获-再捕获、乘数法对其规模进行估计,并对两种方法进行比较和分析。结果应用捕获-再捕获方法计算得出某市男男同性恋人群为3248人,应用乘数法该人群的规模为3867人。结论捕获-再捕获、乘数法两种规模估计方法均简单易行、费用比较低,可以在男男同性恋人群中开展规模估计。两种方法各有特点,在同性恋工作相对成熟地区使用乘数法较为方便,在同性恋工作刚刚起步地区宜于使用捕获-再捕获方法。关键词规模估计;捕获-再捕获;乘数法;Objective Discuss how to use the method to estimate the personnel scale of the men who have sex with men （MSM） reasonably, which can offer good suggestions for our country to make the AIDS prevention plan, Methods Reasonably choose the playgrounds of MSM to collect the data in a city. Firstly use the methods of capture - recapture and multiplier in the same time to estimate the scale of MSM in the city, and compare the differences of the two kinds of methods. Results Using the capture - recapture method, the number of MSM in the city is 3248 persons, while using the multiplier method, the number is 3867 persons. Condusions The two methods, Capture - recapture and Multiplier methods, are both easily carried out, and the expenses are lower than the other estimation methods, they can be used in the estimation of MSM, each of them has their own characteristics. Capture - recapture method is good to be used in the area which the work for MSM is very well, while Multiplier is good to be used in the area which the work for MSM is on the beginning.

关 键 词：规模估计 捕获-再捕获 乘数法 男男同性恋 

分 类 号：R-167[医药卫生]