黑龙江省森林覆盖率的灰色评价和模型预测  

Grey evaluation and forecasting of the forest coverage of Heilongjiang province

作　　者：邱微[1] 李崧[1] 赵庆良[1] 张建祺[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学市政环境工程学院,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2007年第10期1649-1651,共3页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：黑龙江省科学技术计划资助项目(2005R0057-00)

摘　　要：森林覆盖率是生态省建设指标体系中一项重要指标,运用灰色关联度对森林覆盖率的影响因素进行分析,结果表明林木蓄积量和森林面积是主要因素.应用灰色系统理论,以黑龙江省1994～2005年森林覆盖率的统计数据为基础,建立灰色预测GM（1,1）模型,预测森林覆盖率的发展趋势,预测得到2006年黑龙江省森林覆盖率为43.90%,2007年为44.14%.原始数据具有连续性、可比性特征,预测结果经检验,精度较高.The forest coverage is an important indicator of eco - province construction index system. The grey relativity was used to analyze the factors of forest coverage. Result indicated that stock volume of the forest and forest areas were the main factors. On the basis of forest coverage statistical data from 1994 -2005, grey system theory was applied to build up the GM （ 1,1 ） model. Using the GM （ 1,1 ） model to forecast the forest coverage development trend, the forest coverage would be 43.90% in 2006 and 44. 14% in 2007. The originally data is continuity and comparable, so the results has high precision, and can provide scientific gist for macroscopical decision.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 森林覆盖率 黑龙江省 灰色关联度 预测 

分 类 号：TU378.1[建筑科学—结构工程]