嫩江、哈尔滨两地48年来夏季降雨特征分析  

Characteristics of Precipitation in Summer Seasons in Nenjiang and Haerbin over the Past 48 Years

作　　者：缪驰远[1] 魏欣[1] 孙雷[1] 徐霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《资源科学》2007年第6期25-31,共7页Resources Science

基　　金：国家重点基础发展规划项目(973):"中国主要水蚀区土壤侵蚀过程与调控研究"(编号:2007CB407204);国家自然科学基金项目:"东北黑土区土壤侵蚀对土地生产力的影响"(编号:40471082)

摘　　要：文章基于嫩江、哈尔滨两地48年来的夏季降雨资料，分析了夏季降雨量的变化特征，并选用Morlet小波对嫩江、哈尔滨两地夏季降雨序列的多时间尺度进行了研究。结果表明：①嫩江、哈尔滨近48年来夏季降雨量均成正态分布，且均有增加的趋势，变异等级为中级；②通过诊断发现嫩江和哈尔滨夏季降雨均可分为3个时间段：嫩江1954年～1967年为偏千年阶段，1970年～1978年为偏干阶段，1978年～1998年为偏湿阶段；而哈尔滨1954年～1966年为干湿交替变化的波动阶段，1967年～1980年为偏干阶段，1981年～1997年为偏湿阶段；③嫩江、哈尔滨两地夏季降雨量近48年来均出现突变特征，且突变点均出现在1979年；④哈尔滨近年来夏季降雨存在的尺度周期变化规律约为29～38年，且该尺度周期变化最为明显，能量最强，具有全域性，嫩江近年来夏季降雨存在约19～30年周期变化规律，其能量值较大，周期性较强，并且与哈尔滨29年～38年尺度一致，具有随时间推移能量进一步加大的趋势。Northeast China plays an important role in Chinese economic development due to its abundant food supplies. In order to utilize the precipitation resources better, and grasp the law of precipitation, the paper, based on 48-year （1954- 2001 ） precipitation data in summer, analyzed the precipitation change characteristics in Nenjiang and Haerbin city, and chose the Morlet wavelet to research the multiple timescale. The results show： 1 ） The difference of summer precipitations between the Nenjiang and Haerbin are fairly clear, the maximum and minimum summer precipitations in Nenjiang are 592.00mm and 154.00mm respectively, and 631.20mm and 164.30mm in Haerbin respectively. The precipitation in Nenjiang and Haerbin appears the increasing trend during the last 48 years, and the calculated coefficient of trend r are 0.32 and 0.14 respectively in Nenjiang and Haerbin. The precipitation in summer presents normal distribution, and the calculated coefficient of variation Cv are 0.2726 and 0.2811 respectively, and the 75 percent precipitation in Nenjiang and Haerbin in summer are raged from 234.40mm to 417.00mm and 232.40mm to 394.20mm respectively; 2） From the curve of 5-year mean, the summer precipitation in Nenjiang and Haerbin can be divided into 3 phases. In Nenjiang city, from 1954 to 1967 and 1970 to 1978 are the phases of less precipitation. From 1978 to 1998 is the phase of more precipitation. In Haerbin city, from 1954 to 1966 is the phase of less-more alternant variation. From 1967 to 1980 and 1981 to 1997 are the phases of less and more precipitation respectively; 3） In Nenjiang and Haerbin city, the precipitation in summer during the last 48 years presents the characteristic of abrupt change, which appeared in 1979 from the accumulated difference curve. The value of accumulated difference is reduced before 1979, and the reverse change appeared after 1979. The T-tests also have proved the same result; 4）The cycle of precipitation change in summer in Haerbin is about 29t o 38 years, with the strong e

关 键 词：嫩江 哈尔滨 降雨特征 突变 MORLET小波 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468.024