基于生态足迹模型的上海土地利用可持续性调控研究  

Study on Regulation of Land Use Sustainability in Shanghai Based on Ecological Footprint Model

作　　者：戴晓燕[1] 徐建华[1] 董山[1] 马军杰[1] 王志海[1] 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200062

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第6期20-28,共9页Journal of East China Normal University(Natural Science)

摘　　要：运用生态足迹模型分析得到了上海市1996-2005年生态足迹的动态变化过程.在此基础上,结合灰色预测方法对近期(2010年)和远期(2020年)的生态足迹及各类用地规模进行了预测,确定了生态环境适宜的上海市土地利用调控指标与优化布局,测算结果将有助于科学制定土地利用总体规划以实现对土地利用的可持续性调控,促进土地利用与经济、人口、资源和环境的协调发展.The ecological footprint model was applied to analyze the variation of ecological footprint in Shanghai from 1996 to 2005. Based on these, the ecological footprint and land scale were predicted in 2010 and 2020 through the grey forecast model, and land use regulation indeces and optimal arrangement favorable to ecological environment in Shanghai were obtained. These results are helpful to establish general land use planning scientifically in order to implement the regulation of land use sustainability, and to promote the development of economy, population, resource, environment and land use in a harmonious way.

关 键 词：生态足迹 土地利用规划 可持续性调控 灰色预测方法 

分 类 号：X171.4[环境科学与工程—环境科学]