不确定市场环境下的销售商订货策略分析  

Analysis of Retailers' Ordering Decisions in Uncertain Conditions

作　　者：胡本勇[1] 王性玉[2] 彭其渊[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,成都610031 [2]河南大学管理学院,河南开封475001 [3]西南交通大学交通运输学院,成都610031

出　　处：《软科学》2007年第4期79-82,共4页Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(06BJF006)

摘　　要：对于季节性产品,由于销售商订货决策时点提前,用于决策的信息多是预测值,而诸如产品的销售价格、残值、缺货成本以及市场需求特征等预测的准确性直接影响产品订货量的准确性,一旦出现产品超存或短缺,都会降低销售商的收益。针对上述问题,销售商可采用延迟订货、柔性采购以及经营替代产品等策略,获取更准确的订货决策信息,降低或转移市场不确定性风险,提高订货决策的质量。Because retailer＇s ordering decision must be made early, making decision is depended on forecast data. The retailer＇s ordering quantity is depended on the forecast accuracy of the price, the remnant value, the lack cost of products and the market demand characteristics. The overplus or shortage of products will reduce retail＇s income. In view of the above questions, the retailer may adopt the strategy of delay ordering, flexible purchase, or management substitution product to gain more accurate ordering decision information, to reduce or shift the market risk, and improve the quality of ordering decision - making.

关 键 词：订货策略 不确定环境 柔性采购 报童问题 

分 类 号：F713.3[经济管理—产业经济]