突变理论在海河流域地下水环境风险评价中的应用  

Application of catastrophe theory to risk assessment of groundwater environment for river basin

作　　者：李绍飞[1] 孙书洪[1] 王向余[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津农学院水利工程系,天津300384 [2]清华大学土木工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《水利学报》2007年第11期1312-1317,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

摘　　要：介绍了突变理论基本原理及评价方法,根据海河流域地下水环境特征及几十年的演变过程,提出了地下水环境风险评价指标体系,并将其应用于流域内天津、沧州、衡水、石家庄和唐山等5个典型区域的地下水环境风险评价中。应用结果表明,该方法的评价结果与相关资料显示的各区域地下水环境实际情况基本吻合,与应用较成熟的模糊综合评价结果基本一致,并验证了突变理论方法用于地下水环境风险评价的可行性。相对于以往评价方法,突变理论评价法无需确定指标权重,减少人为主观因素,且计算简便,为区域地下水环境质量综合评价提供了新的方法。The fundamental and evaluation method of catastrophe theory were introduced. On this basis, a multi-principle evaluation index system for Haihe River Basin was suggested according to the characteristics and evolution process of groundwater environment. This system was applied to the risk evaluation for groundwater environment in five typical regions in the river basin. The result is in accordance with the actual situation and consistent with that derived from fuzzy assessment. The proposed method is easy for calculation and is not necessary to define the weight of evaluation indices so that the influence of subjective factors on assessment can be minimized.

关 键 词：突变理论 地下水环境 风险评价 指标体系 海河流域 

分 类 号：P641.1[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] X820.4[天文地球—地质学]