隧道地表沉降预测的时变参数灰序模型TGM-AR  

Time-dependent parameter gray model TGM-AR for prediction of surface settlement of tunnels

作　　者：王铁生[1] 张利平[1] 华锡生[2] 张冰 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电学院资源与环境学院,河南郑州450008 [2]河海大学土木工程学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《河海大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第6期655-658,共4页Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：河南省高等学校青年骨干教师资助计划资助项目;河南省教育厅自然科学基础研究资助项目(200742001)

摘　　要：在趋势项提取法中,针对逐步回归法比较烦琐及灰色模型预测精度低的缺点,结合灰色预报系统的灰色性和时变性,根据变形体的实际变形规律,将时变参数a(t),b(t)及灰色理论应用于时序模型建模中,提出并建立时变参数灰序模型TGM-AR.时变参数灰色模型用于提取趋势项部分,时序模型用于提取随机部分.将模型应用于隧道地表的沉降分析和预测,结果表明模型预报精度高,且趋势项的物理意义明确.For extraction of trend items, the stepwise regression method is troublesome, and the gray model is of low precision of prediction. Based on the gray and time-dependent characteristics of the gray prediction system and the deformation rules of the deformation body, the time-dependent parameters a （ t ） and b （ t ） and the gray theory were applied to time series modeling, and a time-dependent parameter gray model TGM-AR was developed. The model TGM- AR with a （ t ） and b （ t ） was used for extraction of the trend item, and the time series model was for extraction of the random parts. The application of the model to analysis and prediction of the ground surface settlement of tunnels shows that the prediction precision is high and the physical significance of the trend item is explicit.

关 键 词：地表沉降 灰色模型 时变参数 变形预测 

分 类 号：TU433[建筑科学—岩土工程]