基于影响因素分布模型的滑坡稳定性敏感分析  

Sensitivity analysis of landslide stability based on distribution models of influencing factors

作　　者：柴波[1] 殷坤龙[1] 汪洋[1] 李远耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学工程学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《岩土力学》2007年第12期2624-2628,共5页Rock and Soil Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.40072084);三峡工程地质灾害防治重点项目

摘　　要：提出了基于影响因素分布模型的滑坡稳定性敏感分析方法,该法用于分析影响因素在整个定义域内对滑坡稳定性的敏感程度,以滑坡影响因素为子序列,以其稳定性系数为目标序列,根据子序列的累积分布函数求影响因素区间概率函数,与目标序列差值乘积加和得到敏感性综合决策值。以三峡库区奉节县太山庙滑坡为例,经类比统计得到滑带土抗剪强度参数的分布函数,通过经验分析得到地震水平加速度和库水位变化的分布函数,应用该法计算得到影响因素中对滑坡稳定性最敏感的因素。以内摩擦角为例,分析了影响因素方差与滑坡稳定性敏感分析结果的关系。The sensitivity analysis method of landslide stability based on models of influencing factors is conducted to analyze sensitivities of influencing factors in their definition domains. This method regards influencing factors as sub-sequences, the corresponding safety factors as target-sequences. The area probability functions of influencing factors, which are calculated by cumulative distribution functions of sub-sequences, product with difference values of target-sequences respectively; then, results that are produced by those two values are summed to get decision values of sensitivity. With this method, taking Taishanmiao landslide for example, which is located at Fengjie county in the Three-Gorges reservoir. Based on the distribution functions of shear strength factors by analogy and statistics and the ones of maximum horizontal acceleration of earthquake and water level fluctuations by empirical analysis, the most sensitive factor among all influencing factors is obtained. Finally, the relation between the sonsitivity of landslide stability and variances of influencing factors is analyzed on basis of internal friction angle.

关 键 词：滑坡 分布函数 敏感性分析 方差 

分 类 号：O242[理学—计算数学]