公共交通需求的协整分析方法  

The Co-integration Analysis Method for Public Transport Demand

作　　者：赵德斌[1] 李巧茹[2] 王亮[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学系统工程研究所,天津300072 [2]河北工业大学土木工程学院,天津300132

出　　处：《河北工业大学学报》2007年第6期94-98,共5页Journal of Hebei University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70671073)

摘　　要：公共交通需求分析是进行公共交通规划、设计、建设、管理的基础和依据.在分析几种常用公共交通需求分析方法的基础上,将协整理论引入公共交通需求分析中,然后分析了公共交通需求与人口、劳动力就业数量、石油价格之间的关系并进行了实证分析.结果表明:公共交通需求与劳动力就业数量之间存在协整关系,建立误差修正模型后进行预测,发现模型具有较好的预测效果.The analysis of public transport demand is the basis of public transport＇s planning, designing, building and managing. Based on the analyzing of some traditional methods, the co-integration theory was applied in the public transport volume forecasting. The authors analyzed the relationships among the public transport demand, population, work force and oil price in London, and the results showed that there is a co-integration relationship between the London public transport demand and the work force. In addition, an error correction model based on co-integration theory for forecasting the public transport volume was built and it exhibits a good performance.

关 键 词：协整 交通需求 公共交通 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]