基于相空间重构的西太平洋副高指数的动力随机性与复杂性  

Dynamic Randomicity and Complexity of Subtropic High Index Based on Phase Space Reconstruction

作　　者：张韧[1] 王辉赞[1] 刘科峰[1] 洪梅[1] 余丹丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象学院

出　　处：《南京气象学院学报》2007年第6期723-729,共7页Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40375019);江苏省气象灾害重点实验室资助项目(KLME0507)

摘　　要：基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,计算了西太平洋副热带高压脊线指数的逐候时间序列,对该时间序列进行了相空间重构,对相空间重构中最佳嵌入维数和延迟时间的选择进行了分析,画出了相应的伪相图,同时还对副高脊线指数吸引子的关联维数进行了计算,得到副高脊线指数关联维数为3.10±0.05。通过动力参数的计算和重构后相空间递归图的分析,讨论了副高活动的动力随机性和复杂性。分析结果对副高系统复杂性和可预报性的认识以及副高动力模型反演有参考意义。Based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the pentad time series of the western Pacific subtropic high ridge index is calculated;the time series is analyzed by the phase space reconstruction technique, and during the course of phase space construction, the optimal delay time and embedding dimension of phase space is discussed and determined, and the counterfeit phase plot is also given;then the correlation dimension of subtropic high ridge index series is calculated, to be 3.10 ± 0.05. According to the computation of dynamic parameters and the analysis of recurrence plot by the phase space reconstruction,the dynamic randomicity and complexity of subtropic high is discussed. The analysis result will be of importance to understand the complexity and predictability of subtropical high system, and it will also have special reference value to the subtropical dynamic model retrieval.

关 键 词：副高脊线指数 相空间重构 关联维数 递归图 伪相图 

分 类 号：P732.7[天文地球—海洋科学]