Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用  

Mann-Kendall Examination and Application in the Analysis of the Time Series for Silt Concentration in the River

作　　者：张璐[1] 周跃[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学环境科学与工程学院,昆明云南650093

出　　处：《亚热带水土保持》2007年第4期13-16,共4页Subtropical Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点基础发展计划(973)项目(2003CB415105-06)

摘　　要：探讨了Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验在时间序列分析方面的应用,并以云南省文山州盘龙河为例,把它运用到河流悬沙浓度时间序列的趋势分析和突变分析研究中。结果表明:①M-K检验同样适用于河流悬沙浓度的趋势与突变分析;②盘龙河自20世纪60年代初至90年代末河流悬沙浓度一直表现为波动上升趋势,1999年后有下降的迹象;③盘龙河的河流悬沙浓度自20世纪60年代以来存在着两个明显的突变点,其一在1973年,其二在1999年。The essay probes into the application of the Mann - Kendall non - parametric rank tests in the time series analysis, and use it into the research of trend analysis and breaking analysis. The result shows that： 1 ） M - K examination also fit the trend and breaking analysis on the silt concentration in the river;2） since the initial 1960s to the end of 1990s, the silt concentration of Panlong River appeared the fluctuating upwardly, while appeared downwardly after 1999; 3） there were two breaking points appeared for the silt concentration of Panlong River since 1960s, one was in 1973 and the other was in 1999.

关 键 词：Mann—Kendall检验 趋势 突变 河流悬沙浓度时间序列 盘龙河 

分 类 号：P333.4[天文地球—水文科学]