黑河中游近49年降水序列变化规律及干旱预测——以张掖市为例  

Study on the Prccipitation Change and Drought Prediction of Middle Reach of Heihe River in Current 49 Years——Take Zhangye City as an Example

作　　者：张遇春[1] 张勃[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2008年第1期84-88,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40235053);甘肃省中青年科技基金项目(031-A21-005530);生态经济学甘肃省省级重点学科资助

摘　　要：黑河位于西北内陆地区,所处地带属于典型的温带大陆性干旱气候。干旱是对该地区农业发展危害最大的主要灾害。因此,对该地区降水序列的研究以及对干旱的预测尤显重要。本文以张掖市为例,采用高台、民乐、山丹、肃南、临泽和甘州6个观测站的1956-2004年49年的月降水量观测值,分析该地区降水的空间分布特点和时间序列的变化规律,并选择1968-1997年30年的月降水量观测值,运用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,建立各县区的灾变预测模型GM(1.1),对该地区未来一定时期内干旱发生的时间进行预测,经检验预测模型精度较高,检验结果基本与实际相符。因此,研究结果可对广大旱区抗旱减灾,促进农业生产提供科学指导。Heihe river lies in the northwest inland of China with typical continental climate of temperate zone. Drought is the maximal disaster to the development of the regional agriculture. It is important to reseach the precipitation series and the drought forecasting of this area. Using the monthly rainfall data in Gaotai, Shandan, Minle, Sunan, Linze and Ganzhou from 1956 to 2004, the regional spatial characteristic and the change of precipitation were analyzed. The monthly rainfall data in this region from 1968 to 1997 and the Grey system＇s catastrophe fi^recasting were applied to set up the GM （ 1.1 ） model for every county. The drought time of this regione in the future was forecasted. Through checkouting, the model＇s definition is so accurate that the essential result approach the factual data. Therefore, the GM （ 1.1 ） model of this reseach is of high practical value.

关 键 词：降水量 灰色系统 GM(1.1)模型 干旱预测 

分 类 号：P332.1[天文地球—水文科学]