交通事故贝叶斯最小风险控制模型  

Bayesian minimum hazard control model of traffic accident

作　　者：吴德华[1] 陈培健[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建省交通规划办公室,福建福州350001

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2007年第6期119-122,共4页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家西部交通建设科技项目(200331822323)

摘　　要：为了预测交通事故与控制事故风险,引进贝叶斯最小风险理论,构建了交通事故贝叶斯最小风险控制模型。当车辆在不同半径曲线上运行时,采集其位移坐标数据,并进行换算处理,如果速率梯度模的变化率出现不正常的振荡,则交通事故前兆出现。模拟结果表明:在车辆正常运行情况下,速率梯度模对时间的绝对变化率服从三参数的威布尔分布,利用柯尔莫哥洛夫检验可以判定交通事故前兆出现与否,从而实现对高速公路交通事故的动态监控。For forecasting traffic accident and control accident hazard, a Bayesian minimum hazard control model of traffic accident was constructed by using Bayesian minimum theory. The displacement coordinates were collected and transformed when vehicle ran on different radii curves, if the variety ratio of speed rate grads modular appeared abnormal surge under normal condition, the auspice of traffic accident appeared. Simulation result shows that the variety ratio to time obeys Weibull distribution with three parameters under normal running condition, the auspice can be determined by using Kolmogorov checking method, so that the dynamic supervision of traffic accident is realized on freeway. 4 tabs, 2 figs, 10 refs.

关 键 词：交通安全 交通事故 贝叶斯最小风险控制模型 威布尔分布 柯尔莫哥洛夫检验 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]