Mann-Kendall检验及其在河流悬沙浓度时间序列分析中的运用  

Mann-Kendall Test and Applying It in Time Order Analyzing of River Suspended Sand Concentration.

作　　者：张璐[1] 周跃[1] 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学环境科学与工程学院,昆明650093

出　　处：《新疆环境保护》2007年第3期19-22,共4页Environmental Protection of Xinjiang

基　　金：国家重点基础发展计划(973)项目(2003CB415105-06)

摘　　要：探讨了Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验在时间序列分析方面的应用,并以云南省文山州盘龙河为例,把它运用到河流悬沙浓度时间序列的趋势分析和突变分析研究中。结果表明:①M-K检验同样适用于河流悬沙浓度的趋势与突变分析;②盘龙河自20世纪60年代初至90年代末河流悬沙浓度一直表现为波动上升趋势,1999年后有下降的迹象;③盘龙河的河流悬沙浓度自20世纪60年代以来存在着两个明显的突变点,其一在1973年,其二在1999年。Inquiring into Mann - Kendall non - parametric order related test applying in time order analyzing respect, the article takes Panlong River of Wenshan Prefecture Yunnan Province as example and applys it into trend analyzing and sudden change analyzing and research on time order of river suspended sand concentration. The result shows： ①M - K test is also suitable for analyzing river suspendad sand concentration trend and sudden change;②At the beginning of 1960s to the end of 1990s, river suspended sand concentration of Panlong River had been showing in wave motion rising trend and after 1999 had drop sign; ③Since 1960s, river suspended sand concentration of Panlong River has existed in two clear sudden change points,one was in 1973 and the other was in 1999.

关 键 词：MANN-KENDALL检验 趋势 突变 河流悬沙浓度时间序列 盘龙河 

分 类 号：TV143[水利工程—水力学及河流动力学]