新一轮农产品价格上涨的影响分析  

An Analysis of the Impact of the New Round of Rise in the Prices of Agricultural Produce

作　　者：程国强[1] 胡冰川[2] 徐雪高[3] 

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所 [2]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所 [3]中国人民大学农业农村发展学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2008年第1期57-62,81,共7页Journal of Management World

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(70025304)资助

摘　　要：2007年中国居民消费价格持续上涨,全年涨幅有可能达到4.5%￣4.6%。前期CPI上涨的直接诱因是食品价格大幅上涨,而非食品价格涨幅保持在较低水平,因此具有典型的结构性特征。本文利用计量模型分析表明,猪肉价格上涨对CPI具有明显的推动作用,猪肉价格每上涨10%,就会推动CPI上涨0.5%。不同品种农产品之间的价格波动存在传导性和同步性,具有多米诺骨牌效应。农产品价格上涨使农村居民人均增收217元,也在一定程度上增加了城乡居民生活成本。总体而言,目前农产品价格波动仍处于合理范围。China's CPI kept rising in 2007, probably to 4.5%to 4.6. In the early period of the year, the direct cause for this rise was the steep climb in food prices; the mounting of the non-food prices kept at low levels. Therefore, the increase in CPI was a structural inflation. In this paper, we have used an econometrics model to make an analysis and showed that the rise in pork price obviously spurred the rise of CPI: 10% increase in pork price would always push the rise of CPI to 0.5%. The fluctuation of prices of different kinds of agricultural produce has the characteristic of conductivity and synchronization, something like the domino effect. The climb in produce price added$217 to the income of the rural residents per capita, increasing at the same time the living cost of rural residents. In conclusion, we should say that reasonable is the rise and fall of China's produce prices at present.

关 键 词：农产品 食品 价格 CPI 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]