异龙湖湿地功能可持续性评价及PSR模型时滞性研究  

Ecosystem sustainability assessment of Yilong lake wetland and time-lag effects analysis of the PSR model

作　　者：翟红娟[1] 崔保山[1] 王英 王娟[1] 赵欣胜[1] 胡波[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875 [2]山东省煤田地质局,泰安271000

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2008年第2期243-252,共10页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划(973)项目(2003CB415104)~~

摘　　要：基于压力-状态-响应（PSR）框架模型理念，构建了异龙湖湿地生态系统功能可持续性评价的指标体系；同时，基于生态系统健康原理和模糊数学提出了湿地生态系统退化及其可持续性评价方法，研究了20世纪50年代至今异龙湖湿地生态系统功能可持续性变化的过程，包括压力、状态、响应和可持续能力4个方面，并使用偏相关分析和时间平移的方法修正了PSR模型的滞后性，研究结果表明：20世纪50年代至今，异龙湖湿地生态系统的功能可持续能力不断下降，目前逐渐趋于平缓；异龙湖湿地生态系统功能的变化滞后于压力约1～5a，滞后于响应约1～15a。An indicator system for assessing the sustainability of Yilong Lake was developed based on the pressure-state-response （PSR） model and an assessment method is introduced that depends on ecosystem health theory and fuzzy mathematics. On this basis, the degradation process of Yilong lake from the 1950s to 2004 was analyzed and the sustainability of the lake was assessed. Also, partial correlation analysis was used to determine the time-lag effects of the PSR model. The results show that： ① The sustainability of Yilong lake declined from the 1950s to 2006; ② The pressure-state-response model has time-lag effects, In terms of Yilong Lake, the change of state may be 1-5a later than the pressure and 1-15a later than the response.

关 键 词：压力 状态 响应 异龙湖 时间滞后性 可持续性 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]