森林火灾发生趋势及预测方法的探讨  

Forecasting and trend of forest fire occurance

作　　者：韩恩贤[1] 韩刚[1] 薄颖生[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学林学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第2期91-96,103,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家林业局天然林保护科技支撑项目(2001-11)

摘　　要：【目的】实现森林火灾的预测预报，减少森林火灾的发生及其给社会造成的危害。【方法】利用陕西省17年的火灾发生频数资料，采用Markov转移矩阵和GM（1，1）灰色模型，对陕西森林火灾发生的趋势和预测方法进行了探讨。【结果】2008年前陕西森林火灾基本处于B级稳定状态，最小级A出现于2006年，最大级C可能出现于2008年。【结论】采用2001-2004年实际火灾发生情况对预测模型进行了验证，预测结果与实际相符，为陕西省森林火灾防灾减灾奠定了基础。[Objective] The study is to decrease the forest fire occurrence and its damages to the society by means of forest fire occurrence forecasting and prediction. [Method] The trend and forecasting of forest fire occurrence in Shaanxi Province was developed based on the 17 years＇ data of forest fire frequency in Shaanxi Province and by application of Markov transfer matrix, Grey model GM（1,1）. [Result] The results showed that forest fires in Shaanxi Province will generally remain at stable Class B. The minimum Class A occurs in Year 2006 and the maximum Class C might occur in Year 2008. [Conlcusion] The prediction model was validated by real forest fire data collected during the period between Year 2001-2004,and the test showed its prediction matched the actual situation,which would lay a foundation for the prevention and reduction of forest fires in Shaanxi Province.

关 键 词：森林火灾 灰色模型 趋势预测 陕西省 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]