未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究进展  

Progress on the Projections of Future Climate Change with Various Emission Scenarios

作　　者：张雪芹[1] 彭莉莉[1] 林朝晖[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京100029

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2008年第2期174-185,共12页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“青藏高原环境变化及其对全球变化的响应与适应对策”(编号:2005CB422006);中国科学院知识创新工程领域前沿项目“青藏高原冰湖变化及其潜在灾害评价与预警研究”(编号:KZCX2-YW-310);“应对气候变化影响的国别研究及对策”(编号:KZCX2-YW-305)共同资助

摘　　要：概述未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究的主要进展。首先,对用于开展气候变化预估研究的不同复杂程度的气候系统及地球系统模式及其模拟能力进行了简要的介绍,指出虽然目前气候系统模式在很多方面存在着较大的不确定性,但大体说来可提供当前气候状况的可信模拟结果;进而介绍了IPCC不同的排放情景,以及不同排放情景下全球与东亚区域气候变化预估的主要结果。研究表明,尽管不同模式对不同情景下未来气候变化预估的结果存有差异,但对未来50～100年全球气候变化的模拟大体一致,即全球将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加。在此基础上,概述了全球气候模式模拟结果的区域化技术,并重点介绍了降尺度方法的分类与应用。同时对气候变化预估的不确定性进行了讨论。最后,对气候变化预估的研究前景进行了展望,并讨论了未来我国气候变化预估研究的重点发展方向。Researches on the projection of climate change are comprehensively reviewed here. Firstly, three kinds of climate models are presented in order to evaluate the ability of models （ in particular coupled atmosphereocean general circulation models） in the application of climate change projection. It is outlined that coupled models can provide credible simulations of the present climate for most variables of interest for climate change although clouds and humidity remain significant sources of uncertainty. Secondly, a series of emission scenarios released by the IPCC are summarized, so are the results of climate change projections at the global scale and in East Asia. A- nalysis indicates that in spite of the different outputs from global climate models （GCMs） with various scenarios, the model experiments show similar climate pattern with global warming and the regional increasing of mean precipi- tation over the 21st century. Considering the coarse spatial resolution of GCMs for many subgrid scales, this paper introduces the downscaling techniques used to enhance the regional details of climate projection. Then, the uncer- tainties of climate change projection are addressed. At last, the perspectives of research on the future climate change projection as well as the priority focus of climate change projection in China are discussed.

关 键 词：气候模式 排放情景 气候变化预估 降尺度 不确定性 

分 类 号：X26[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]