南印度洋海区大风天气气旋概念模型研究  

Synoptic Models of Strong Winds over the South Indian Ocean

作　　者：陈信雄[1] 褚晓春[1] 周庆[1] 苏华良[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国卫星海上测控部气象室,江苏江阴214431

出　　处：《海洋预报》2008年第1期14-19,共6页Marine Forecasts

摘　　要：本文根据多年的天气图、卫星云图以及1980～1990年的NCEP再分析资料,通过统计分析和合成分析等方法建立了能够在南印度洋特定海区引起12m/s以上大风天气的中高纬气旋型天气概念模型,并对该天气概念模型作了详细的阐述。该天气概念模型主要发生在南半球的冬季和初春,在该模型中,气旋从高纬低压中分裂出来,快速东移赶上位于其东部的高位低压并发展至其北部。气旋冷锋最终在南印度洋东部引起大风。该天气概念模型的建立对南印度洋海区大风的预报可起到一定指导作用。The major purpose of this research is to establish some guide lines for the forecasting of the strong wind over the region that we concerned in the South Indian Ocean. It lies off Australia＇s east coastal line and it is about 2000km or more away from Australia and extends from 90°E to 100°E in the east-to-west direction, and from 35°S to 30°S in the south-to-north direction. First, we used NCEP global reanalysis data spanning the period 1980-1990 to choose the typical cases in which the synoptic systems caused strong winds whose speed exceeded 12m/s in the region. Then we employed composite analysis to establish three typical conceptual models as guidelines for the forecasting of strong winds. All of the three models mainly occur in the late autumn, winter and early spring. In one of the models, subtropical high pressure center lies over the west part of the South Indian Ocean and deep depressions located around the Antarctic play an important role. In this process, both of the two systems tran sform from zonal to meridional and cause strong wind in the region. In other two models strong winds are caused by baroclinic systems and mid latitude cyclones separately.

关 键 词：南印度洋 合成分析 大风天气模型 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]