基于全周期抽样的搜索自适应Monte Carlo重要抽样法的船舶总纵强度可靠性研究  

Reliability research of overall longitudinal strength of hull based on full periodic search adaptive Monte Carlo importance sampling method

作　　者：朱敏[1] 窦培林[1] 李红涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏科技大学船舶与海洋工程学院,江苏镇江212003 [2]中国船级社海工审图中心,天津300457

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2008年第1期71-75,共5页Ship Science and Technology

摘　　要：引入随机过程理论,确定表征船舶总纵弯曲载荷和强度的随机变量的概率分布及统计特征,针对船体梁总纵弯曲的失效模式,提出全周期抽样的搜索自适应Monte Carlo重要抽样法进行船体总纵强度可靠性分析;该方法对传统的Monte Carlo法进行改进,有效地平衡了Monte Carlo方法的计算速度与计算精度之间的矛盾,利用较少的抽样次数可得到更加理想的抽样密度函数和收敛速度更快、精度更高的失效概率计算结果;最后以某军用艇为例,分别采用本文方法与JC法进行船体总纵强度可靠性评估,并对计算结果进行了比对分析。According to the theory of stochastic processes, the probability distribution and statistical characteristic of random variables about loads and strength of hull are determined and considering yield invalidation mode of overall longitudinal strength of hull, the full periodic search adaptive Monte Carlo importance sampling method is presented to carry out reliability analysis of overall longitudinal strength of hull, which can give ideal sampling density function and more accurate invalidation probability with faster convergence speed using fewer sampling times and which can solve the disagreement between speed and accuracy of algorithm. At last, reliability evaluation of overall longitudinal strength of a certain warship is carried out by using both this paper＇s method and JC method,then analysis is made based on evaluation results.

关 键 词：船舶总纵强度 随机变量 可靠性分析 失效概率 MONTE Carlo重要抽样法 

分 类 号：U661.43[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]