基于最大Lyapunov指数改进算法的水量预测与控制  

Forecasting and control of water demand based on the improved largest Lyapunov exponent algorithm

作　　者：魏希柱[1] 任月明[2] 沈毅[1] 袁一星[3] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学控制科学与工程系,哈尔滨150001 [2]哈尔滨工程大学材料科学与化学工程学院,哈尔滨150001 [3]哈尔滨工业大学市政工程系,哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2008年第1期25-27,共3页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50478025)

摘　　要：为了提高城市用水量的预测精度,针对城市用水量的非线性及复杂性,应用最大Lyapunov指数改进算法,利用历史数据信息,在重构相空间的基础上对城市用水量进行短期预测,应用混沌理论对用水量时间序列进行分析,与历史数据比较,表明了预测方法的可行性和实用性.最大Lyapunov指数改进算法用于城市用水量预测及泵站水泵机组运行工况控制获得了很好的效果.According to the non-linearity and complexity of urban required water quantity, the predicted method is depicted based on the improved largest Lyapunov exponent to increase the forecasting precision of urban water quantify. By making full use of historical data and information, short-term water quantity is conducted after restructuring of phase space based on chaos theory. Comparing actual water time series with historical data by chaos theory, rationality and feasibility of the predicted method are indicated. There is an excellent effect to use improved Lyapunov exponent algorithm to predict urban water quantity and to control water supply of pump station.

关 键 词：最大LYAPUNOV指数 城市用水量 预测 控制 

分 类 号：O415.5[理学—理论物理] TU991.31[理学—物理]