基于解耦机制的小地区短期负荷预测方法  

Short-Term Load Forecasting Method of Small Region Based on Decoupling Mechanism

作　　者：黎灿兵[1] 刘梅[2] 单业才[3] 唐涛南[3] 

机构地区：[1]郑州大学电气工程学院,河南省郑州市450001 [2]清华大学电机系,北京市海淀区100084 [3]北京电力公司,北京市西城区100031

出　　处：《电网技术》2008年第5期87-92,共6页Power System Technology

摘　　要：小地区短期负荷预测是电网企业精细化管理的重要手段。针对小地区短期负荷预测的特点,提出了基于解耦机制的误差分析模型和预测机制,将短期负荷预测分为负荷水平预测和标幺曲线预测两部分。小地区负荷结构单一,标幺曲线相对稳定;负荷基数较小,负荷水平的波动比较明显;标幺曲线和负荷水平受不同因素的影响,影响机理不同,分别预测有利于提高预测精度。提出了标幺曲线和平均负荷预测方法,理论分析和实践均证明,该方法能较好地把握负荷发展规律,提高了标幺曲线和平均负荷的预测精度,使总预测效果得到了改善。Short-term load forecasting of small region is an important tool for fine management of power grid enterprises. According to the features of load forecasting of small region, a decoupling mechanism based error analysis model and corresponding forecasting mechanism are proposed in which the short-term load forecasting is divided into two parts, namely load level forecasting and per unit curve forecasting. As for small region, the composition of load is simplex, so the per unit curve is relatively stable; due to its small load base, the fluctuation of load level is evident; the per unit curve and load level are influenced by different factors, due to different influencing mechanism, respective forecasting is in favor of improving forecasting accuracy. The forecasting methods for load level and per unit curve are proposed respectively, and both theoretical analysis and practical results prove that the proposed method can better grasp the law of the load development, improve the forecasting accuracy of per unit curve and load level, thus the total forecasting result is improved.

关 键 词：负荷预测 平均负荷 标幺曲线 解耦机制 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]