西安市时用水量预测模型研究  

Research on forecasting model of hourly water consumption of Xi'an

作　　者：许强[1] 盛宁 

机构地区：[1]西安航空技术高等专科学校动力系,西安710077 [2]陕西科技技术学院,西安710000

出　　处：《水科学与工程技术》2008年第1期62-65,共4页Water Sciences and Engineering Technology

摘　　要：分析了给水系统时用水量的变化特征,利用自回归分析的方法,识别时用水量序列的数据模式。在此基础上对常用的预测模型进行了优选,利用指数平滑模型和季节性指数平滑模型对西安市给水系统的时用水量进行了预测。结果表明,模型预测精度较高,可操作性强。The changeful regulars of hourly water consumption is analyzed, and then the data pattern of hourly water consumption serial is identified by use of autoregression analysis. Basing on these, the normal forecasting models are selected. Finally, the hourly water consumption of Xi＇an is forecasted by exponential smoothing and season character exponential smoothing. Result indicates the forecasting model is reliable.

关 键 词：时用水量预测 数据模式 自回归分析 

分 类 号：F323.213[经济管理—产业经济]