江苏沿海海面的多尺度波动过程和趋势预测  

Fluctuation Process and Trend Prediction of Sea Level Change along Jiangsu Coast Based on Multi-scale Analysis

作　　者：俞肇元[1] 袁林旺[1] 谢志仁[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210097

出　　处：《地理科学》2008年第1期94-99,共6页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：973计划前期研究专项课题"基于虚拟地理环境的长江三角洲地区人地相互作用机制研究(2007CB416602);江苏省普通高校自然科学研究计划资助项目"海面变化的多尺度集成预测模型研究"(06KJD170102)资助

摘　　要：以江苏沿海处于长江三角洲持续徐缓沉降区的3个验潮站为研究对象,综合运用EMD方法和SSA方法进行海面波动的过程和趋势分析。通过迭加EMD提取的长期趋势和长周期组分获得修正的长期趋势,利用SSA对剩余组分进行分解,获得各站位小尺度的海面波动周期序列,各站位间均能较好的对比。在此基础上,针对修正的长期趋势分量,建立未来海面变化趋势的预测模型,对各站位未来百年相对海面变化的上升值进行预测和对比。In this paper three tide gauge stations along the coast of northern part of Jiangsu Province were selected as the objects of study, which were located in the sustainable slowly settlement areas of Changjiang （Yangtze） River Delta. Fluctuation and trend of sea level change were analyzed in virtue of EMD and SSA methods comprehensively. The adjusted long-term trends were obtained through the sum of trends that extracted by EMD and long-term cycle components. Short-term wave cycles were gained from the rest components by means of SSA method and each station could be properly compared. Combined with the research findings of local ground rise or fall, the absolute sea level changes were discussed and prediction models were built according to the adjusted long-term trends. Based on the mentioned above, relative sea level changes in the coming one hundred years were calculated and compared with results of IPCC.

关 键 词：海面波动 长期趋势 海面预测 EMD SSA 

分 类 号：X145[环境科学与工程—环境科学]