Weibull分布在新产品市场渗透研究中的应用拓展  

Application Extension of Weibull Distribution for New Product Market Penetration Research

作　　者：黄劲松[1] 王高[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2008年第2期320-328,共9页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70572008，70772012)

摘　　要：在应用Weibull模型研究新产品市场渗透时,"永不采用人群"、消费者个体之间的差异、消费者群体之间的差异是研究新产品采用时需要考虑的三种因素。本文基于这三种因素分别建立了三个拓展的Weibull模型,并利用面板数据进行了实证研究,发现三种拓展之后的模型在数据拟合和数据预测方面均有显著的提高.然后,本文将三种因素整合至一个模型之中形成了一种新的综合Weibull模型,实证分析结果显示新的模型有很好的新产品市场渗透数据拟合和预测能力.When we employ Weibull model to study new product penetration, ＂never triers＂ , heterogeneity in individuals and heterogeneity in consumer segmentations are three factors that should be taken into account. In this study, we first build up three extended Weibull models based on these three factors, and carry out a series empirical analysis by using panel data. The results of the empirical analysis show that the accuracy of calibration and forecasting of the extended models are significant improved. Then we integrate all these three factors into one model and form an new integrated Weibull model, the empirical analysis show that the new extended model has great ability to calibrate and forecast new product penetration data.

关 键 词：Weibull模型 新产品采用 永不采用人群 个体差异 群体差异 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]