用门限自回归建模对山西地区地震活动进行预测  

Using Fuzzy Mathematic Method to Predict the Earthquake Damage of Pipeline System

作　　者：雷建设[1,2] 郭星全[1,2] 韩忠文 

机构地区：[1]山西省地震局 [2]山西省太原市上兰镇

出　　处：《山西地震》1997年第3期29-32,共4页Earthquake Research in Shanxi

摘　　要：利用门限自回归原理对山西地区未来地震活动进行了预测。结果表明，山西地区至２０００年可能发生的最大地震的震级为ＭＬ５．３，而１９９７年可能发生的最大地震震级为ＭＬ４．１。认为，在该区未来几年内发生ＭＳ≥６．０地震的可能性不大。The failure forms of the buried pipeline,the influence factors of pipeline damage and the damage grades have been related The mathod and steps of the earthquake damage prediction of the buried pipeline using fuzzy mathematic method,and the earthquake damage prediction of the water supply pipeline in Xinzhou by this method have been expounded,the results of the earthquake damage prediction under the effect of the intensities Ⅶ～Ⅸ have been given

关 键 词：门限自回归模型 地震活动 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]