我国自然灾害类应急预案评价方法研究(Ⅰ):完备性评价  

Study on Evaluation Method of Natural Disaster Emergency Plan in China(Part Ⅰ):Completeness Evaluation

作　　者：刘吉夫[1] 张盼娟[1] 陈志芬[1] 陈晋[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2008年第2期5-11,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：科技部"十一五"科技支撑计划项目"国务院应急平台数据库系统设计和综合应用系统研发"(2006BAK01A07);科技部"十一五"科技支撑计划项目"农村生态环境整治与监测关键技术研究"(2006BAJ10B00)

摘　　要：从自然灾害类应急预案着手,采用故障树分析方法(FTA)对其完备性进行评价。通过建立自然灾害类应急预案的标准故障树,确定各基本事件的权重,并将待评价应急预案的基本事件与标准故障树进行对比,进而得到其需要加强和完善的薄弱环节,并从量化的角度出发得到待评价应急预案的不完备度。最后,采用上述方法分析一个实际的地质灾害应急预案,对该应急预案的完备性进行评价,最终确定其需要加强和完善的方面,为制定或修订应急预案提供参考。The paper proposed a completeness evaluation method for natural disaster emergency plan by the fault tree analysis （FTA）. Firstly, the standard fault tree for natural disaster emergency plan was developed by referring the related laws and the existing disaster emergency plans, and then the basic events and their weights were determined. The aspects needing to be improved in the evaluated emergency plan could be found out by comparing the basic events in the evaluated emergency plan with the standard fault tree. Meanwhile, the emergency plang incompleteness degree was quantitatively calculated. Finally, with the above method, the paper made a case study by evaluating completeness of an actual geologic disaster emergency plan, some aspects needing to be strengthened were found, which provided basis for revising the emergency plan.

关 键 词：应急预案 评价 完备性 故障树分析法(FTA) 不完备度 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P315[天文地球—地震学]