GMDH方法在中长期电力负荷预测中的应用  

Research on Mid-Long Term Power Load Forecasting Based on GMDH

作　　者：周晓华[1] 黄玲[1] 刘胜永[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西工学院电子信息与控制工程系,545006

出　　处：《电气应用》2008年第6期67-69,共3页Electrotechnical Application

基　　金：广西自然科学基金(桂科自0146006号);广西工学院科学研究基金(院科061421号)

摘　　要：在时间序列预测法的基础上,将数据处理组合方法GMDH应用于中长期电力负荷预测。介绍了GMDH的基本原理,根据历史数据建立GMDH模型,通过某地区电力负荷预测实例,对电力负荷值进行了计算分析,结果表明该方法可获得较高的预测精度。On the basis of time series forecasting method, GMDH is proposed to be applied into forecasting for mid-long term power load. Fundamentals of GMDH is introduced, a GMDH model is established according to the history data. And an application case of the mid-long term power load forecasting of a certain area is given. Through calculation and analysis of its power loads, the result shows that the higher accuracy can be obtained by this method.

关 键 词：GMDH 中长期电力负荷预测 时间序列预测法 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] TP271[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]