采用Norton模型预测短生命周期产品市场需求  

Forecasting the demand of products with short lifecycle based on Norton model

作　　者：徐贤浩[1] 郭晓云[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2008年第2期19-23,54,共6页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70472059)

摘　　要：介绍了Norton模型的原理和适用范围,结合短生命周期产品生命周期短、市场需求量波动明显的特点,讨论了Norton模型在短生命周期产品预测中的可行性;经过比较各种参数估计方法,决定采用仿真领域的模拟退火法进行参数估计;最后,以2004年到2006年的国内MP3销售为例,说明了Norton模型在多代短生命周期产品的市场需求预测中有很好的效果,并对预测结果进行了分析讨论。Firstly , the theory and the application range of Norton model is introduced, and then combined the characteristics of products with short lifecycle and the market demand fluctuation, the feasibility of Norton model used in forcasting the short lifecycle products is discussed. After comparing various methods of parameter estimation, the simulated annealing method is selected for estimating the parameters. In the end, taking the three generation＇s MP3（the capacity of 256M, 512M and 1G. ） as an example, it has been proved that adopting Norton model to forecast the demand of short lifecycle products gave a good effect and the forcast result is also analyzed and discussed.

关 键 词：短生命周期产品 Norton模型 预测 多代产品扩散 

分 类 号：F272.1[经济管理—企业管理]