运用熵值法探讨广州25年社会、环境和经济变化状况  

Evolutional analysis of social, environmental and economic development of Guangzhou (1978—2003) by using entropy theory

作　　者：朱丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]暨南大学管理学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《生态环境》2008年第1期411-415,共5页Ecology and Environmnet

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40072022);中国科学院重点知识创新项目(KZCXZ-SW-117)

摘　　要：改革开放以来,在广州经济社会发展和城市建设取得了显著成就的同时,人口、资源、环境与发展的矛盾也日益突出。如何有效度量社会、环境和经济的演进状况和协调程度是指导建设可持续发展社会的必要条件。文章汇总了广州1978—2003年的城市发展统计数据,从社会、环境和经济发展三个方面选取典型的评价指标,利用熵值法探讨期间广州城市可持续发展状况,结果表明:①社会进步指数由1978年的0.08增长到2003年的0.88,对可持续发展系数的贡献率为28.91%;②广州市环境支持指标值变化明显,环境支持指数由1978年0.07增长到2003年0.76,对发展可持续系数的贡献率为19.69%;③经济发展进步较快,经济发展指数由1978年的0.02增长到2003年0.84,是三个指数中增幅最大的指数,对发展可持续系数的贡献率为51.4%;④自改革开放以来,在经济高速发展的同时,社会子系统也同步发展,环境子系统虽有起伏,但波折并不大,可持续发展水平系数曲线仍然保持向上的势头,经济与社会、环境基本协调向前发展。Since the reform and opening, the confliction of population, resource, environment and economic development is increasing along with the significant progress in the economy, society and city construction. How to measure the development situation and coordination degree is necessary for constructing the sustainable development. This paper collected the statistical data of city development of Guangzhou from 1978 to 2003; typical evaluation indexes were selected according to social, environmental and economic development. The entropy was used to discuss sustainable development situation of Guangzhou city during this period. The results indicated that, （i） the index of social progress increased from 0.08 in 1978 to 0.88 in 2003. Its contribution rate to sustainability coefficient was 28.91%; （ii） the index of environmental support changed obviously, increased from 0.07 in1978 to 0.76 in 2003. Its contribution rate for sustainability coefficient was 19.69%; （iii） the indexes of economic development increased from 0.02 in 1978 to 0.84 in 2003. Its contribution rate for sustainability coefficient was 51.4%; （iv） the state of Guangzhou sustainable development had an increasing tendency with a fine curve of development. Although Environmental system had a little fluctuation, the general development level still kept an increasing tendency. Economy, society and environment had a basically coordinated development.

关 键 词：广州 环境 经济 社会 可持续发展评价 熵值法 

分 类 号：X2[环境科学与工程—环境科学]