T213数值预报产品在本地降水预报中的释用  

The local application of T213 numerical precipitation forecast product

作　　者：赵凯[1] 孙燕[1] 张备[1] 尹东屏[1] 姜麟[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》2008年第2期217-220,共4页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：江苏省气象局课题(2003013;2005007);江苏省科技厅科技发展项目(BS2006087)

摘　　要：利用最新的准2 a国内T213数值预报产品资料和实时地面降水观测资料,筛选出物理量因子,运用动力相似预报方法,经过统计分析,建立了江苏省未来12 h^3 d(12~72 h)降水的预报系统,对预报员制作天气预报有一定的参考价值。该方法的应用软件实现了降水的自动、客观、定时、定点、定量预报,目前已经投入业务使用。ground Using newest quasi-biennial T213 numerical forecasting product data and real-time precipitation observed data, screening physical quantity factor by means of the dynamic similarity forecast method; the precipitation forecast system in the future 12 - 72 h in Jiangsu Province has been built by statistical analysis;and obviously, it has certain reference value for forecaster to do the weather forecast. This method application software has made the precipitation forecasting automatical, objective, at fixed time and point, and quantitative, at present it already has been put into the service use.

关 键 词：动力相似法 降水预报 距离加权平均插值法 检验评分 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]