新疆北疆最大积雪深度EOF展开场的时间变化规律  

Temporal Variation of the Maximum Snow Cover Depth in North Xinjiang Derive from EOF

作　　者：王秋香[1] 魏文寿[2] 王金民[3] 

机构地区：[1]新疆气象信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2008年第2期244-249,共6页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40475041)资助

摘　　要：应用新疆北疆20个站1961-2006年46 a积雪资料,对最大积雪深度进行EOF展开场的时间变化规律的研究.结果表明:北疆最大积雪深度空间分布具有一致性,同时存在纬向上的反位相变化和西北-东南方向上的反位相变化.第一特征向量场主导了北疆最大积雪深度的年代际变化趋势,而代表北疆平均最大积雪深度空间上一致性的第一特征向量场年际增加趋势十分显著,1983年代之前北疆大多数年份最大积雪深度普遍偏浅,1997年之后普遍偏深.用Mann-Kendall法对其做突变检验发现,第一特征向量时间系数在1997年冬季发生了突变;而代表纬向上反位相关系的第二特征向量场虽然有增加趋势,但趋势不显著,代表西北-东南方向上的反位相关系的第三特征向量场没有明显的增减趋势.In this paper, the maximum snow cover depth in North Xinjiang is analyzed with EOF, based on the meteorological data from 20 meteorological stations in the study area during the period of the recent 46 years. The results show that the maximum snow cover depth in North Xinjiang is synchronized in spatial distribution. The maximum snow cover depth exists an opposite phase change in latitude and in the direction of northwest-southeast. The yearly change of the maximum snow cover depth in North Xinjiang is mainly effected by the first eigenvector, distribution of the first eigenvector has an observable increasing tendency, the maximum snow cover depth is universally on the low side in most years before 1983, and however it is universally on the high side after 1997. The time coefficient of first eigenvector had an abrupt change in the winter of 1997, detected by the Mann-Kendall method. But the increasing tendency of the second eigenvector is not prominent. The third eigenvector has not pronounced change.

关 键 词：北疆 最大积雪深度 EOF趋势 突变 

分 类 号：P426.635[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]