中国股市已实现波动率的跳跃行为研究  

An Empirical Research on Jump Behavior of Realized Volatility in Chinese Stock Markets

作　　者：王春峰[1] 姚宁[1] 房振明[1] 李晔[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学管理学院,天津300072

出　　处：《系统工程》2008年第2期1-6,共6页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70771076);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(70225002)

摘　　要：以二次幂变差的测量为理论基础,研究了上证综指已实现波动率中的跳跃行为。将已实现波动率分解为连续样本路径方差和离散跳跃方差,研究了跳跃方差序列的统计特征,并且应用HAR-RV-C J模型对上证综指的已实现波动率进行预测。研究结果发现,几乎所有日、周和月已实现波动率的可预测性都来自连续样本路径方差,表明二次变差中的连续样本路径成分是中国股市已实现波动率预报的决定因素。Building on theoretical results for bi-power variation measures, the jump behavior of realized volatility for Shanghai synthesized index is examined. Realized volatility is divided into two parts： the continuous sample path variation and the discontinuous jump variation. The statistical feature of jump variation is studied. The realized volatility of shanghai synthesized index is predicted by using a HAR-RV-CJ volatility forecasting model. We find that almost all of the predictability in daily, weekly, and monthly realized volatility comes from continuous sample path variation, which indicates that non-jump

关 键 词：跳跃过程 已实现波动率 二次幂变差 市场微观结构噪音 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]