基于R/S分析法的云南干热河谷降水变化趋势分析  

Analysis on Change Trend of Precipitation in Yunnan Dry-Hot Valley Region Based on Rescaled Range Analysis Method

作　　者：樊毅[1] 李靖[1] 仲远见[1] 杨保华[1] 郭凯颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学水资源与节水灌溉重点实验室,云南昆明650201

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2008年第2期24-27,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：云南省干热地区水资源特性研究课题基金资助项目(YSZY-2003-02);云南省应用基础研究基金资助项目(2007B210M);云南省高校学术带头人基金资助项目基金(A3002029)

摘　　要：以云南干热河谷区涉及四大流域的典型代表站1956～2000年的降水资料序列为研究对象，应用基于分形理论的R／S分析模型对云南低纬度高原区干热河谷近45a来1月、7月和年均降水量变化趋势进行了分析，研究表明存在明显的Hurst现象，表现为持续上升的趋势效应，且年降水量变化趋势的持续性强度明显大于1月和7月，而未来年降水量将可能出现继上世纪90年代初以来持续上升的趋势，利用R／S方法预测降水丰枯变化趋势是较为有效的途径。Based on precipitation data from five representative stations of four river basins in Yunnan dry-hot valley region,the R/S model of the fractal theory was used to analyze and forecast the future change trend of January,July and annual precipitation about dry-hot valley region in low latitude and plateau area of Yunnan. The results showed that the precipitation of January,July and annual nearly for the past 45 years in Yunnan dry-hot valley region had obvious Hurst phenomena and generally the ascending trend effect will persist. Persistence intensity of precipitation change trend of annual was higher than in January and July. In the future annual precipitation will probably continuously increase after continued rise since the beginning of 901s in last century,so the R/S model of the fractal theory is a more effective method to analyze and forecast precipitation trend.

关 键 词：干热河谷 降水量 R/S分析 变化趋势 HURST指数 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]