中国耕地变化的驱动因子及其省域差异分析  

Analysis on Driving Forces and Provincial Differences of Cultivated Land Change in China

作　　者：曹银贵[1] 袁春[1] 周伟[1] 陶金[1] 华蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学土地科学技术学院

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2008年第2期17-22,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：中国土地勘测规划院“城市土地集约利用评价”(2-1-07-35)

摘　　要：研究目的:分析全国1996—2005年耕地变化的情况和影响耕地变化的主要因子及其正负相关性与空间差异。研究方法:采用二元定距变量相关性分析方法计算众多因子与耕地之间的相关性;然后采用对比分析的方法寻找因子在显著与不显著中出现的频次及正负相关性的一致性;最后分析主要影响因子的空间差异。研究结果:在研究期全国耕地面积持续减少,主要是生态退耕所致;众多因子中的主要驱动因子有14个,基本上与耕地呈现出负相关,并且在空间分布上存在差异。研究结论:在相关分析的基础上进行统计分析,有利于寻找地域之间驱动因子的差异,其主要驱动因子可作为后续耕地变化研究的参考。The purpose of this paper is to analyze the change of cultivated land in China from 1996-2005, the positive and negative correlations and the spatial differences of major driving factors. Methods of correlative analysis and contrastive analyses were adopted to calculate the corrections between numerous factors and cultivated land area, and to find the frequency of notable correlation and non-notable correlation and furthermore the spatial differences. The results indicate that the area of cultivated land had been decreasing in China, which mainly resulted from the policy of returning cultivated land to forest for ecological reasons. There were 14 primary driving factors which had negative correlations and spatial differences. The correlative analyses is useful for finding the differences of driving forces which can be taken for reference in future research of cultivated land change.

关 键 词：土地资源 驱动因子 统计分析 耕地 差异 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]