基于多源预报的热带气旋危险区域的确定方法  

Determining method of dangerous areas around tropical cyclone based on multisource forecasts

作　　者：刘大刚[1] 刘正江[1] 吴兆麟[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2008年第2期80-84,共5页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(60172044)

摘　　要：为了提高热带气旋信息的完整性与准确性,分析了目前确定热带气旋中心周围危险区域的方法,提出了基于多源预报的热带气旋中心周围危险区域的确定方法。根据中、日、美三国对热带气旋中心位置的预报结果,求出预报的离散度,由预报位置与平均误差的关系,得出热带气旋90%落入概率的概率圆范围,然后将大风浪半径套在此概率圆的外面,可得到充分考虑多家热带气旋预报结果的热带气旋中心周围大风浪危险区域。可见,此方法提高了热带气旋预报圆的落入概率,有力保障了船舶绕避热带气旋的安全性。In order to improve the integrity and accuacy of tropical cyclone（TC） information, the present methods of determining the dangerous areas around TC were analyzed, and a new method based on multisource forecasts was proposed. According to the forecasting results of TC center positons made by China, Japan and the United States, forecasting discrete values were computed. From the relation between forecasting positions and average errors, the radius of 90% TC falling probability circle was got. Covering the radius of strong wind or rough sea area outside the probability circle, the dangerous areas around TC center were got based on considering different TC forecasting results. Obviously, the method improves the falling probability of TC forecasting circle, and strongly guarantees the safety of ships＇ avoiding TC. 4 tabs, 5 figs, 10 refs.

关 键 词：海上交通安全 船舶 热带气旋 危险区 绕避 多源信息融合 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]