华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术  

A Comprehensive Technique for Forecasting Regional Torrential Rain in Huabei Area

作　　者：李延香[1] 徐传玉[1] 滕俏斌 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《气象》1997年第11期22-26,共5页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局气象科技"短平快"项目

摘　　要：华北地区区域性暴雨综合预报技术是以ＨＬＡＦＳ数值降水预报产品为基础，以物理量诊断为主要依据，综合使用红外卫星云图、常规气象资料和国内外数值预报产品等众多信息逐步订正，以人机结合方式制作华北地区区域性暴雨预报的技术。实验表明，该技术对华北暴雨有较好的判断和预报能力，其主要特点是：基本上模拟预报员的预报思维和业务流程制作暴雨预报；系统分段执行，透明度大，便于改进，也有利于预报员了解暴雨发生发展的机理和规律．The comprehensive technique is a man and computer interactive system for forecasting regional torrential rain in Huabei area , which is based on numerical precipitation prediction products of HLAFS , judged by diagnosis of meteorological elements and corrected step by step by using in- frared satellite images , conventional meteorological data and NWP both domestic and abroad . Experimental study shows that this technique has a remarkable ability to identify and forecast tor- rential rain in Huabei Area. The main characteristics of the system are the following , first , it basi- cally simulates the forecaster ' s thinking and work procedure to forecast torrential rain ; second , as working step bv step , the system has higher transparency and is convenient for further improve- ment and for forecaster to know the mechanism and law of torrential rain onset and development .

关 键 词：暴雨 综合预报技术 系统设计 预报效果 降水预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]