HLAFS和T63数值预报产品在暴雨分析中的应用  

Application of HLAFS and T63L NWP Products to Analyzing Rainstorm

作　　者：陈威[1] 姜荣[1] 张志秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气象台

出　　处：《黑龙江气象》1997年第3期10-12,共3页Heilongjiang Meteorology

摘　　要：首次使用ＨＬＡＦＳ数值预报产品对黑龙江省暴雨进行分析。结合Ｔ６３数值预报产品，利用两者提供的物理量（如Ｔ—Ｔｄ、水汽通量散度、涡度、垂直速度、相对散度和θｓｅ）０８时和２０时的实况场和预报场格点资料，对黑龙江省一次暴雨过程进行分析，找出了暴雨发生的物理机制，指出深厚的水汽条件以及水汽的辐合，强烈的上升运动和不稳定能量的存贮和释放是产生暴雨的关键因素。通过对数值预报产品的分析、使用，也表明了两种数值预报模式，尤其是ＨＬＡＦＳ，对制作短期天气预报和降水预报具有重要的参考价值。This paper makes an analysis of a rain storm happened in Heilongjiang province based upon the real time field and prediction field of some physical vectors from grid data sets of HLAFS and T63 NWP models.The physical vectors include T Td,moisture flux divergence,vorticity,vertical velocity,relative divergence and potential pseudo equivalent temperature.Through this analysis,the physical reason of rain storm occurrence are found.And the key factors to the occurrence of rain storm are indicated to be adequate moisture,convergence of moisture,dramatic ascending motion and storage and release of instability energy.Meanwhile,a conclusion is reached that both T63 and HLAFS NWP models,especially HLAFS,are of great value in making short term forecast,especially in predicting precipitation.

关 键 词：暴雨 降水分析 数值预报产品 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.121.1