基于灰色预测模型的江苏省粮食灾损量估计  

Estimation of grain yield loss in Jiangsu Province based on grey prediction model

作　　者：李春华[1] 李宁[2] 孟志强[3] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室(北京师范大学),北京100875 [3]民政部教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2008年第1期104-108,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40771008);国家科技攻关支撑项目(2006BAD20B01)

摘　　要：影响粮食产量的因素包括粮食单产和粮食播种面积,自然灾害对这两个因素均有影响。根据灰色预测理论,提出了一个自然灾害粮食损失的评估模型,利用实际粮食产量资料,对江苏省改革开放以来的粮食灾损量进行了估计。结果表明,近30年来江苏省自然灾害粮食灾损明显,粮食灾损率年际间波动较大,农业生产的减灾投入是农业可持续发展的重要保障。There are two factors that affect grain yield, including per unit area grain output and sown area of grain. In order to shed light on the impact of natural disaster on grain yield in Jiangsu Province, The grain loss model is put forward based on gray prediction analysis. By means of the grain loss model, factors of grain production in Jiangsu is discussed, According to the grain production data and agricultural statistical data from 1978 to 2004 in Jiangsu Province, the loss amount of gain yield due to natural disaster in Jiangsu Province is calculated. The results signifies that the impact of natural disaster on grain production is significant and grain loss rate fluctuates in the research period, which implies that it is indispensable to enlarge the disaster relief input into the grain production so as to maintain the agricultural sustainable development.

关 键 词：自然灾害 灰色预测 粮食 灾损模型 粮食灾损量 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S51[农业科学—作物学]