中国碳排放特征及其动态演进分析  

Character of Carbon Emission in China and Its Dynamic Development Analysis

作　　者：胡初枝[1] 黄贤金[1] 钟太洋[1] 谭丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2008年第3期38-42,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：霍英东基金优选项目(94001);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-05-0451);江苏省软科学项目(BR2007039)

摘　　要：人类经济发展史表明,经济发展与环境质量存在着密切的联系。为此,基于EKC模型,采用平均分配余量的分解方法,构建中国碳排放的因素分解模型,定量分析1990-2005年经济规模、产业结构和碳排放强度对碳排放的贡献,即规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。结果表明:中国碳排放变化效应均值为19.55%。其中,经济规模、产业结构和碳排放强度引起的变化效应分别为15.76%,-0.86%和4.65%。总的看来,经济增长与碳排放之间呈现出"N"型关系,经济规模对碳排放变动具有增量效应,这是推动碳排放增加的主要因素;由于不同产业之间碳排放差异性越来越大,产业结构调整对碳排放具有一定的减量效应,但抑制作用并不明显,产业结构仍有待优化;技术效应波动性较大,总体上具有正的效应,从减少碳排放角度来看,现行技术对降低碳排放并未发挥优势。本研究结果对于理解我国碳排放变化与经济发展之间的内在联系,以及产业发展调整具有一定的意义。From the history of human economic development, It＇ s shows that there is close relationship between economic development and environment quality. Thus this article builds a factors decomposition model of carbon emission in China, and analyzes the contribution that economic scale, industrial structure and carbon emission intensity make to carbon emission quantitatively from 1990 to 2005, namely scale effects, structural effects and technical effects using the decomposition method of average distribution cushion which is based on the EKC model. The result shows that the average of the effect changes of carbon emissions in China is 19.55 %, the effects brought by economic scale, industrial structure and carbon emission inteusity are 15.76%, - O. 86% and 4.65%. Generally speaking, The relation between carbon emission and China＇s economy was more like an “N” Curve, Economy scale is a primary drive factor and have increment effect to carbon emission. From otherness of different industry getting bigger, the industry restructure has certain decrement effect to carbon emissions, but the restrain function is not obvious, the industrial structure need to be further optimized; The technical effect is positive and its volatility is large. From the perspective of reducing carbon emission the current technology has not played to its advantages. This research will promote understanding the theory about between carbon emission and economy development , and possess reference value by all means to the adjustment of industrial development.

关 键 词：碳排放 环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC) 分解分析模型 效应 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]