西南地区桥梁寿命预测分析  

Forecast Analysis of Bridge Life in Southwest China

作　　者：林兵[1] 郑丹[1] 周建庭[1] 逄立伟[1] 徐斌 代阳 胡志全 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学,重庆400074 [2]丰都县公路局,重庆400827

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第3期374-378,共5页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然基金项目(50608072);交通部西部交通建设科技项目(200731879253);重庆市重大科技攻关项目(CSTC2005AA6010)

摘　　要：随着在役桥梁的逐步老化,对其进行准确的可靠性评估以预测其寿命,从而进行有效的加固改造已显得日益重要。根据桥梁结构实际使用和管理中可能获得的信息不同,采用回归分析、灰色理论、神经网络预测等桥梁剩余寿命预测模型,对西南地区在役桥梁的剩余使用寿命进行预测,并给出了实例计算结果。此项研究成果可为桥梁工程的维修与加固以及重建计划和决策提供更科学的依据。With bridge in service aging gradually, it is more and more important to evaluate its reliability and forecast its life for better strengthening and rebuilding bridge. According to the difference of information from structure service and manage- ment, the residual life of bridge in service in Southwest China is forecasted by regression method, grey theory and neural network model. Experimentd results are also calculated by these methods. Research results mentioned aboae can be used to provide more scientific warrant for strengthening and rebuilding bridge engineering.

关 键 词：桥梁 寿命预测 灰色理论 神经网络 

分 类 号：U445.7[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]