复合期权方法在项目评估中的应用  

The application of compound option method to the project evaluation

作　　者：毕守锋[1] 李岱松[2] 马欣[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学,北京100037 [2]北京工业大学,北京100022

出　　处：《科研管理》2008年第3期109-113,共5页Science Research Management

基　　金：北京市科委软科学研究(事业费)资助项目，项目编号：Z00004048000091

摘　　要：复合期权不同于简单期权,是期权的期权。现实中,有很多科技项目都采取分阶段投资的方式以规避风险,这样项目每一阶段就隐含多种选择,这种选择权可以视为期权。由于各个期权之间的价值往往是相互作用的,故项目包含的期权应被视为复合期权。论文建立了一个应用复合期权方法进行项目评估的模型,并通过一个具体的案例来说明应该如何应用复合期权对科技项目进行评估。作者分析发现,应用复合期权方法对分阶段投资的科技项目评估能够更好地发现科技项目的真实价值,有利于实现对项目的科学管理。Compound option is different from the simple option. It is option＇ s option. In realities, a lot of technology project invest by phases to avoid the risk. Then every stage includes many choices, these choices can be called options. Since the values of option interact with each other, so that the option should be called a compound option. A technology project model is set up based on a compound option. And a real example is used to introduce how to evaluate project with compound option. It is found that the evaluation of technology project which invest by phases with the compound option is better for discovering the real value of project, and is good for the scientific management of the project.

关 键 词：分阶段投资 科技项目 复合期权 

分 类 号：G311[文化科学]