基于突变理论的地下水环境风险评价  

Catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation of groundwater environment

作　　者：冯平[1] 李绍飞[1] 李建柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2008年第2期13-18,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50579049);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20040056060);新世纪优秀人才支持计划基金

摘　　要：针对地下水环境质量评价涉及范围广、影响因子多的特点,建立了基于突变理论的地下水环境风险评价模型,并将其运用于海河流域的天津、沧州、衡水、石家庄和唐山等5个典型区域的地下水环境风险评价中。另外,还针对该方法评价结果得分值偏高的缺陷,提出了得分变换的方法来解决这一问题。实际应用结果表明:该方法的评价结果与应用较成熟的模糊综合评价结果基本一致,并与相关资料显示的各区域地下水系统实际环境情况基本吻合。从而验证了突变理论方法用于地下水环境风险评价的合理性,为区域地下水环境质量综合评价提供了新的途径。In this paper, a multi-principle evaluation method based on catastrophe theory is presented according to the wide range and multiple influence factors of the groundwater environment quality, and then the method is applied to groundwater environment risk assessment in five representative cities of Haihe River Basin--Tianjin, Cangzhou, Hengshui, Shijiazhuang and Tangshan. To solve the problem of catastrophe evaluation value, a kind of transformation way is put forward. The result indicates that it is consistent with that derived from fuzzy assessment, and with the practical situation . It is concluded that catastrophe theory evaiuation is reasonable and it is a new way for regional groundwater environment comprehensive evaluation.

关 键 词：突变理论 突变评价法 地下水 风险评价 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]