中国能源供需EMD分析及动力学预测  

EMD Analyses and Dynamics Predictions of Energy Supply and Demand in China

作　　者：张衍广[1] 李茂玲[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210046 [2]郯城职业中等专业学校,山东郯城276100

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2008年第3期67-70,共4页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40371044);国家“211工程”重点学科重大项目“不同时空尺度环境演变和生态建设”

摘　　要：根据我国能源总供给和总需求的统计数据,运用EMD方法对我国能源供需情况进行多尺度分析,构建带有周期波动的中国能源供需动力学模型,揭示其动力特征,进行数值模拟并提出虚拟能源理论。研究结果表明:到2020年我国能源生产量为35.6亿t标准煤,能源消费量为42.93亿t标准煤,供需缺口达7.33亿t标准煤,可见我国能源消费速度远远大于能源生产速度。我国未来的能源安全问题十分严峻。Based on the statistics of the total supply and demand of energy sources, the supply and consumption of energy in China was analyzed by EMD on multi-scale. The dynamics model of energy production and consumption was established in this paper in order to reveal its dynamic characteristic. In the same time, the numerical simulation was carried out,and the theory of virtual energy was put forward,which aimed to settle the problem on the supply and demand of energy sources and offer the theoretical reference for the energy decision-making sections. The results indicated that,in the next 10 years, the speed of the energy consumption will be far beyond the speed of the energy production. In 2020, the energy production will come to 3 560 million tons of standard coal, but the energy consumption will reach 4 293 million tons of standard coal in China,which will lead to the lack of energy to 733 million tons of standard coal. Consequently, the safely problem of the energy is very serious in China in the future.

关 键 词：能源生产 能源消费 经验模态分解 动力学模型 

分 类 号：X382[环境科学与工程—环境工程] N93[自然科学总论]